THE GOLD SHEET = 6-12
ARMED FORCES BOWL
AIR FORCE (8-4) vs. HOUSTON (7-5)
Wednesday, December 31 Day at Fort Worth, TX (Grass Field)
Air Force 36 - Houston 33—It would be difficult to replicate the odd
dynamics of the season’s first meeting between these foes, a Sept. 13 battle
originally scheduled for UH’s Robertson Stadium moved 240 miles north to
SMU’s Ford Stadium in Dallas due to Hurricane Ike. That late venue switch and
early morning kickoff seemed to rattle the Cougs more than it did Air Force,
which coped with the windy and wet conditions while surging to a 31-7 lead
before a belated UH rally cut the final margin to 31-28. Along the way, the Falcs
did all of their business on the ground, gaining 380 YR while not completing a
pass. But many components are different in the rematch, not the least of which
is the fact AFA has a new QB (frosh Tim Jefferson), new starting TB (Asher
Clark), and WR Ty Paffett & TE Travis Dekker back from injury. And remember
that Houston was still adjusting to new HC Kevin Sumlin and staff in September.
Still, we can envision the rematch unfolding in a somewhat similar manner.
One dynamic that hasn’t likely changed much from the first meeting is the
Cougs’ ability (or inability) to slow down the Falc option, which has added a
potent element (Jefferson, quicker than former starting QB Shea Smith) to the
equation. Air Force’s ability to move the clock and the chains is also an
effective defense against QB Case Keenum (4788 YP & 43 TDP!) and the
prolific UH spread that piled up 600 yards or more in each of its last 4 games and
cracked the 40-point barrier in 7 of its last 8 outings. But without the defensive
playmakers to slow the option (note that Cougs forced only 17 TOs), UH could
be fighting an uphill battle once more.
SUN BOWL
PITTSBURGH (9-3) vs. OREGON STATE (8-4)
Wednesday, December 31 Day at El Paso, TX (FieldTurf)
Pittsburgh 31 - Oregon State 26—Although it was Pitt that prevailed in the
last bowl meeting between these two, when a Walt Harris-coached Panther
squad won the 2002 Insight Bowl over Oregon State (in Dennis Erickson’s last
game in charge at Corvallis) by a 38-13 count, recent bowl history suggests that
the Beavers should be far more comfy in postseason surroundings. That’s
because OSU has won its last four bowl appearances since ‘03 under HC Mike
Riley, while Pitt is making its first postseason trip in Dave “The ‘Stache”
Wannstedt’s four seasons in charge. But just because the Panthers are a slight
underdog and literal “bowl virgin” hardly suggests they are at a disadvantage.
Indeed, Pitt likely owns the one component most likely to deliver the gamedeciding
plays in slashing soph RB LeSean “Shady” McCoy, who followed up
his stellar frosh campaign (1328 YR) by gaining a whopping 1403 YR with 21
TDs in ‘08. Meanwhile, OSU’s top playmaker, frosh RB Jacquizz Rodgers (who
succeeded McCoy as the nation’s leading frosh rusher), could be slightly
compromised by a nagging shoulder injury that kept him out of the season finale
vs. Oregon, when the Ducks capitalized upon his absence by outrushing the
Beavs 385-89 while denying OSU its first Rose Bowl berth in 44 years. Should
the Panthers establish McCoy on the ground, QB Bill Stull can better stay in his
comfort zone while letting McCoy and fellow RB LaRod Stephens-Howling do
the grunt work. And note that Wannstedt has fared well recently as underdog,
covering 8 of his last 10 receiving points.
MUSIC CITY BOWL
BOSTON COLLEGE (9-4) vs. VANDERBILT (6-6)
Wednesday, December 31 Day at Nashville, TN (Grass Field)
VANDERBILT 16 - Boston College 13—Oklahoma vs. Florida, this ain’t.
Indeed, fans of high-powered offensive football might find this matchup as
appealing as reruns of Hannity & Colmes. On the other hand, defensive
aficionados might rate this among the most-compelling bowl contests, as an
accomplished pair of stop units appear well-equipped to turn this into a lowscoring
affair.
Which of these limited offenses is more likely to forge a breakthrough? In
truth, it might be neither, although we suspect that BC might be less likely to do
so with backup QB Dominique Davis again piloting the Eagle attack. BC has
been less-menacing since QB Chris Crane went down with a broken collarbone
in late November at Wake Forest, and Davis’ inexperience proved costly in the
ACC title game loss vs. Virginia Tech. Expect the well-conceived Commodore
“D” to have Davis similarly off balance by taking away the Eagles’ infantry
threat, much as Frank Beamer’s stop unit did in Tampa when helping to
contribute to Davis’ mistakes, which included a pair of picks and a fumble
returned for a TD. Granted, Vandy cracked the 14-point barrier once its last 8
games, but the Dores’ best offensive threat, sr. QB Chris Nickson, should be
the healthiest he’s been since September. And even though BC is more comfy
with postseason assignments, this Eagle edition is far less dynamic than recent
versions that have won 8 straight bowls, while SEC scouts report Vandy in a
buoyant mood for its first bowl appearance in 26 years. With a hometown
audience offering support, Dores capable of first bowl win since...1955!
INSIGHT BOWL
MINNESOTA (7-5) vs. KANSAS (7-5)
Wednesday, December 31 Day at Tempe, AZ (Grass Field)
Kansas 31 - Minnesota 16—Laying a substantial number of points in a bowl
game is usually a dicey proposition. However, the current conference pedigree
and end-of-season momentum of these two opponents raises substantial
questions about Minnesota’s prospects. The Gophers, using their muchimproved
defense to help them feast on marginal opposition for a 7-1 start, lost
their last four games, all of them to teams starting either backup QBs or former
2008 backup QBs. Moreover, Minny’s key weapon—6-2, 215 jr. WR Eric
Decker (76 recs., 925 yards, 7 TDs)—recently returned to the team following
arthro knee surgery. RB injuries and a youthful OL have led to a non-scary
ground game (3.1 ypc).
Kansas, meanwhile, is brimming with confidence after its season-ending 40-
37 victory over Missouri in the cold and wet at Arrowhead. The Jayhawks’
ground game has steadily improved (quick jr. Jake Sharp ended with 796 YR,
4.7 ypc & 11 TDR), and the passing game was always there with clever QB
Todd Reesing (66%, 28 TDs, 12 ints.) and WRs Kerry Meier (87 recs., 7 TDs),
Dezmon Briscoe (78 recs., 1206 yards, 12 TDs) & Jonathan Wilson (41 recs.).
KU’s five losses were all to top QBs and 2008 bowl teams, including Oklahoma,
Texas, and Texas Tech. The Jayhawks are on a 21-7 pointspread run over the
L2+Ys; 14 of their last 21 wins vs. FBS foes have been by DDs.
Time will tell whether 2008 is indeed one of the best in recent memory for the
Big XII and one of the worst for the Big Ten. But in the 2007 bowls, Big Ten
teams were only 3-5 SU and 2-4 as an underdog.
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
LSU (7-5) vs. GEORGIA TECH (9-3)
Wednesday, December 31 Night at Atlanta, GA (Dome; FieldTurf)
*GEORGIA TECH 34 - Lsu 23—If these two had faced off in the first, rather
than the final, game of this year’s campaign, defending national champ LSU
would likely have been favored by at least two TDs! Unfortunately for the
Tigers, reality managed to preempt preseason reputation, as killer mistakes by
their inexperienced QBs put too much pressure on the rebuilt LSU defense,
leading to 4 losses in its last 6 games (0-6 vs. the spread).
While it would be a mistake to dismiss the disappointed Bayou Bengals’
chances for victory—after all, they still have plenty of talent, as well as extra
time to prepare for Georgia Tech’s tricky option offense—we’re compelled to
back the go-with Ramblin’ Wreck for a number of reasons. First, brainy new
head coach & former Navy mentor Paul Johnson is a pointspread dynamo,
going 44-23-1 against the line in his last 68 games on the board. Second,
speedy but strong soph RB Jonathan Dwyer (13 TDs & ACC-best 1328 YR) is
bound to bust some big runs against the arm-tackling LSU defense. Third, and
perhaps most important, it’s going to be very tough for still-learning Tiger true
frosh QB Jordan Jefferson to maintain his composure under the intense
pressure that the aggressive, ball-hawking Tech stop unit (90 tackles for loss,
32 sacks, 29 “takeaways”) will bring. And lastly, don’t forget that the Yellow
Jackets will also be rooted on by a staunchly partisan crowd in their hometown
of Atlanta.
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